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The National Association of Home Builders estimated that remodeling spending was flat on average across states in the second quarter of 2026. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 largest remodeling markets recorded growth.
Remodeling spending was flat on average across U.S. states in the second quarter of 2026, even as the wider housing market slowed, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24, with growth among the 10 largest remodeling markets limited to North Carolina and Illinois, the NAHB estimates show.
The NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) put the average state growth rate at 0.0% for the quarter. The near-even division between states with declines and increases indicates that the national picture was not uniform, even though the average result was flat. The report does not provide state-by-state growth rates in the source material.
NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said the result matched the association’s forecast for remodeling spending in 2026. He said second-quarter growth was concentrated in smaller states; among the 10 states with the largest shares of the remodeling market, only North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth.
The SPR estimates spending and market share by state each quarter. According to the NAHB, its proprietary statistical model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data, multiple state-level indicators and the association’s annual state remodeling forecast. The figures are model estimates, not a direct tally of every remodeling project or contractor’s receipts.
Flat Spending Tests Remodeling Resilience
The flat estimate suggests remodeling has not been immune to pressures affecting housing, even as the sector continues to attract attention as a source of residential construction activity. The NAHB attributes pressure on projects and spending to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment. For homeowners, those conditions can affect whether projects proceed, their scale and timing; for retailers and remodelers, the state-level split points to uneven demand rather than broad-based growth.
The results also matter because remodeling activity is spread across the country, and the quarter’s growth was limited among the states with the largest market shares. A flat average does not mean spending was unchanged in every state or that every business experienced the same conditions. The source provides no state-level dollar totals or measures of project volume, so the estimates cannot show how much the reported changes affected individual markets.
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike said long-term factors may support future demand, including an aging housing stock, accumulated home equity, mortgage-rate lock-in and homeowners choosing to age in place. Those are the association’s outlook factors, not evidence that spending has already begun to rise.
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How NAHB Tracks Remodeling Demand
The SPR is a quarterly state-by-state series covering remodeling spending, market share and changes in spending. Its estimates draw on national home-improvement spending data and state indicators, with the NAHB’s annual state remodeling forecast also feeding into the model. That method provides an estimate of how activity is distributed across states; it should not be read as a complete count of all remodeling work.
The NAHB also tracks contractor confidence through its Remodeling Market Index (RMI). The association says the index, which measures confidence in the remodeling sector, has remained above 60 for the past year. That confidence reading sits alongside the flat spending estimate, but it measures sentiment rather than actual spending growth.
The association’s broader industry figures point to an expanding role for remodeling in residential construction. It reported that the number of remodeling firms stood at 128,000 at the start of 2025, compared with 69,000 in 2000. The report also describes remodeling as accounting for a growing share of residential construction firms and total construction spending, though it gives no specific share or time series in the supplied material.
State-Level Spending Detail Is Limited
The supplied report does not include dollar amounts, state-by-state growth rates or the size of changes in the states that rose or fell. It also does not specify how the 0.0% average is weighted, so readers cannot infer from that figure alone how total national spending changed.
The estimates describe spending, but the source does not break out project counts, average project costs or the effects of inflation. It is also unclear how much of the flat result reflects fewer projects, higher costs, or shifts in project type. The reported RMI reading above 60 indicates sustained confidence according to NAHB, but does not establish that actual spending will increase in coming quarters.
Next Quarterly Remodeling Estimates
The next quarterly SPR release should show whether the state-level split persists and whether the average estimate moves into growth or decline. The source material does not give a release date for the next update. Readers tracking the sector can also watch NAHB’s RMI for changes in remodeler confidence, while keeping in mind that confidence and measured spending are different indicators.
For now, the NAHB’s stated outlook is that remodeling can grow in the years ahead as home equity helps homeowners finance projects, including work that supports aging in place. That remains a forecast; the Q2 2026 estimate itself shows flat average spending, with gains and declines across nearly equal numbers of states.
Key Questions
Was remodeling spending growing in Q2 2026?
NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling estimated a 0.0% average growth rate across states. Spending rose in 24 states and fell in 26, so the result was flat on average rather than growth in every market.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
According to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz, North Carolina and Illinois were the only states among the 10 with the largest remodeling market shares to record growth in the second quarter.
What factors did NAHB cite as weighing on remodeling?
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects and spending.
Does the report show that remodeling confidence fell?
No. NAHB said its Remodeling Market Index, a measure of sector confidence, had remained above 60 for the past year. The index measures confidence, while the SPR estimates spending; the two figures describe different conditions.
What does NAHB expect to support future remodeling?
NAHB points to home equity, an aging housing stock, mortgage-rate lock-in and more homeowners choosing to age in place. These are factors the association expects to support future demand, not proof that spending has already increased.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
