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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, continuing a decline that began over the prior two months. Consumers were more pessimistic about business and labor market conditions, while expectations for household income remained positive but weakened.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, as consumers gave weaker assessments of current business and labor market conditions and grew more pessimistic about the next six months. The decline matters because the survey tracks households’ views on economic conditions and expectations, though it does not by itself establish how consumers will change their spending.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, fell 7.9 points to 109.3. Net views of current business conditions—the share describing them as good minus the share describing them as bad—dropped 3.4 percentage points to minus 1.9%. The report said the shift was largely driven by more consumers describing conditions as bad. It was the first time since September 2024 that consumer appraisals of current business conditions were negative.
Views of the labor market also softened, although they remained positive on the measure reported. The jobs differential—the share saying jobs were plentiful minus the share saying they were hard to get—fell 2.5 percentage points to plus 1.7%. The Expectations Index, which covers consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor conditions, declined 5.9 points to 63.6. That was its third consecutive monthly fall.
All three expectations components weakened. Net expectations for business conditions fell 3.2 percentage points to minus 9.5%, and labor market expectations declined 3.1 points to minus 14.4%. Household income expectations dropped 3 points to plus 2.5%, remaining positive. The report also said average and median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose 0.3 percentage points, to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share expecting interest rates to rise over the next year increased 5.2 points to 68.4%.
Weaker Outlook Across Key Measures
The September results show a broad loss of confidence across consumers’ assessments and expectations, with the Expectations Index at 63.6 and declining for a third month. In the report, consumers anticipated weaker business conditions and a weaker labor market over the next six months. Those views offer a measure of household sentiment that retailers, businesses and policymakers may monitor alongside other economic data.
The survey also recorded rising inflation expectations and a larger share of consumers expecting interest rates to increase. These are reported expectations, not forecasts of what inflation or rates will do. The report does not establish that the sentiment changes will lead to lower spending, hiring or economic growth, and it provides no spending totals tied to the September results.
A Three-Month Confidence Slide
The September decline followed two months of softening, according to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The present situation measure weakened more sharply than the expectations measure in September: it lost 7.9 points, compared with a 5.9-point decrease for expectations. The two indexes capture different views, with one focused on current conditions and the other on consumers’ short-term outlook.
The preliminary survey covered September 1-23. Hardware Retailing’s account of the report said that window included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The source does not quantify how much, if at all, either development affected respondents’ answers. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence trended down across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income consumers remained generally more optimistic, while households earning $125,000 to $149,000 had the largest six-month decline.
What the Survey Cannot Establish
The September figures are preliminary and reflect responses collected from September 1 through 23. The report does not provide a final estimate in the supplied material, nor does it explain the causes of the month’s decline. Although the survey window included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the source does not attribute the changes in sentiment to either factor.
It is also unclear from these results whether weaker confidence will translate into changes in household spending or other economic activity. The index records survey responses; it is not a direct measure of purchases, employment or future economic performance. The supplied report does not give a numerical comparison with a longer-term index baseline.
Final Results and Spending Data
The next point to watch is whether The Conference Board revises the preliminary September readings when it publishes final results. The supplied report does not state a release date for that update. Subsequent confidence readings can show whether the declines in the current situation and expectations measures persist or reverse.
Readers seeking evidence of actual household activity will need to compare the survey with later retail sales and other economic data. The source mentions that August retail sales rose for an 11th consecutive month, but provides no further figures in the supplied material; that separate report cannot determine how consumers behaved in September.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
Which part of the index fell the most?
The Present Situation Index had the larger monthly point decline, falling 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6.
What did consumers expect about income?
Net expectations for household income remained positive at plus 2.5%, but fell 3 percentage points from the prior reading.
When were the survey responses collected?
The preliminary September survey covered September 1-23, 2026, according to the report.
Source: rss
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